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San Francisco Home-Price Forecast: One of the ‘Strongest’ Metros in 2019

In October, the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) predicted that the state’s housing market would cool down in 2019. But in a separate home-price forecast, the San Francisco metro area was ranked among the ten strongest metros in the country in terms of year-over-year appreciation.

Several forecasters have now predicted that San Francisco-area home prices will climb throughout 2019.

Strong Forecast for Bay Area Home Prices

In an October 2018 press release, C.A.R. researchers said that: “A combination of high home prices and eroding affordability is expected to cut into housing demand and contribute to a weaker housing market in 2019.”

But “weaker” is a relative term. Home prices in many cities across the state could still outpace the national average in 2019, as they did during the current year.

The San Francisco metro area is one of those housing markets where home prices are expected to rise faster than the national average next year. In fact, it was recently ranked #8 among the nation’s 100 largest metro areas, in terms of anticipated home-price growth through fall of 2019.

In October 2018, the property valuation company Veros Real Estate Solutions published a home-price forecast that analyzed conditions in the top 100 most populated metro areas in the country. Specifically, the group predicted the annual home-price changes for the 12-month period of September 2018 to September 2019.

The San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan statistical area was ranked #8 on their list, out of 100 metros nationwide. The company expects prices in the area to rise by nearly 10% during the 12-month period ending in September 2019. (See below for the complete top-ten list.)

Related: Bay Area housing inventory grows

Top 10 Housing Markets According to Veros

The list below shows the annual home-price forecasts (according to Veros) for the ten strongest housing markets in the U.S. The percentages show the projected home-price appreciation for each metro area, from September 2018 to September 2019.

  1. Bremerton-Silverdale, WA……………. 11.7%
  2. Boise City-Nampa, ID……………. 11.2%
  3. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV……………. 10.8%
  4. Bellingham, WA……………. 10.6%
  5. Olympia, WA……………. 10.3%
  6. Carson City, NV……………. 10.1%
  7. Reno-Sparks, NV……………. 10.0%
  8. San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA……………. 9.6%
  9. Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO……………. 9.5%
  10. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA……………. 9.3%

The 2019 home-price forecast for the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro area was strong enough to put it at #8 in this forecast, out of 100 housing markets nationwide. It was the only California metro to make it into the top ten, suggesting it could be one of the top-performing markets in the state next year (for price growth).

Geography note: The whole “Bay Area” thing can be a bit confusing. This particular home-price forecasts pertains to the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which consists of five counties. The broader “Bay Area” includes a total of nine counties, including those up in Wine Country. 

For the nation as a whole, the research team at Veros predicted that home values would rise by an average of 4.5% during that same 12-month period. This means that the metropolitan-level housing markets shown above are all expected to outperform the national average over the coming months (in terms of home price growth).

Of course, this is just one forecast, and it’s the equivalent of an educated guess. So we probably shouldn’t get too hung up on the precise figures being projected here. It’s the bigger picture that matters most, for both home buyers and homeowners.

The key takeaway here is that San Francisco Bay Area home-price forecasts for 2019 suggest that house values in the area could rise faster than most other cities next year.

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